What Does Trump’s Victory Mean for Iran?
Following Donald Trump’s recent election victory, Iran now faces the challenge of dealing with a president it has long regarded as a major adversary. Trump’s return to office raises significant concerns for Tehran, particularly given his history of hardline stances against the regime and previous actions that have strained U.S.-Iran relations.
Reports indicate that Iranian leadership, which allegedly backed Vice President Kamala Harris during the election, will now need to recalibrate its strategy as Trump assumes office once more. On the day of Trump’s victory announcement, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) posted a video threatening retaliation against Trump for his role in the 2019 strike that killed General Qassem Soleimani, a key Iranian military leader. This long-standing call for retribution, combined with Trump’s presidency, is likely to intensify tensions between the two nations.
What Does TRUMP’S Victory Mean for WORLD Politics?
Economic Uncertainty
Trump’s presidency has previously resulted in tough economic measures against Iran. On the news of Trump’s win, Iran’s currency, the rial, plummeted to unprecedented lows, trading at 703,000 rials to the dollar before a slight rebound. Since Trump’s administration imposed heavy sanctions, Iran’s economy has suffered extensively, and further pressure could exacerbate its economic struggles. The rial’s current position, a stark contrast from 2015 levels when the Iran nuclear deal was still in effect, highlights the severity of these economic pressures.
Additionally, while U.S. sanctions have been less enforced in recent years, allowing Iran to export near-record levels of oil, the renewed “maximum pressure” approach anticipated under Trump may impact Iran’s oil revenues and further destabilize its economy.
The Nuclear Threat
Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018 signaled the start of a hardline stance that included sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear capabilities. With Trump back in office, experts believe Tehran may escalate its nuclear ambitions as a bargaining chip or even as a deterrent. Iran’s nuclear advancements pose challenges for international stability, especially if the “maximum pressure” strategy returns without avenues for negotiation. Iran’s response in this period could potentially intensify nuclear and regional security concerns.
Middle Eastern Dynamics
Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts, especially in Gaza and Lebanon, has been a point of contention. Trump’s close relationship with Israel during his previous term and his firm opposition to Iran’s support for regional proxies suggest potential escalations. While some analysts argue Trump may adopt a less interventionist stance than his predecessors, others believe his policies will continue to counter Iran’s influence in the region.
As for U.S.-Iran relations, Trump’s firm support for Israel over Iran aligns with his past policies. It contrasts with Biden’s approach, which focused on fostering a balance. Trump’s return may encourage Israel to take further steps to curb Iran’s influence, potentially escalating confrontations in the region.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has led the yearslong campaign to assassinate Trump. (Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Image)
Future Relations and Unpredictability
While many believe Trump will resume a tough stance, others argue his often unpredictable policies could bring new variables to U.S.-Iran relations. Former Israeli security adviser Chuck Freilich notes that Iran may act cautiously, uncertain of how far Trump might go in his foreign policy. The Republican Party’s recent shift towards isolationism may influence Trump’s approach, potentially reducing the likelihood of military interventions compared to Biden’s more consistent support of regional allies like Israel.
Iranian officials, however, downplay the impact of U.S. leadership changes, with government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani stating that Iran’s policies won’t shift based on external changes. Yet, as Iran’s leadership adapts to this unexpected outcome, the geopolitical landscape is likely to experience new challenges and shifts.
